Australians face severe risks from extreme heat and rising seas by 2050 if warming isn’t slowed, according to the nation’s first climate risk assessment.
The report from the Australian Climate Service, the National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), models impacts at 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of warming and warns of widespread impacts from sea-level rise, increasing heatwave deaths and major damage to nature – even under best-case scenarios.
At 3°C by 2050, heat-related deaths in Sydney could surge 450%, 1.5 million coastal residents be exposed to sea-level rise, and A$611 billion be wiped from property values, while Australia’s ecosystems and biodiversity will also come under significant pressure. Even under a modest warming scenario (+1.5°C), annual extreme-weather costs could reach A$40 billion by 2050 as electricity networks fail and disaster-related mental-health impacts strain health services.
The NCRA examines risks across eight systems – natural environment, economy, food systems, communities, health, national security, First Nations peoples, and transport and energy.. Northern Australia, remote communities and outer suburbs are expected to bear the brunt, placing additional strain on health services, emergency response, critical infrastructure and primary industries.
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the assessment was an honest warning of the cost of failing to act.
“Cascading, compounding, concurrent – that’s how the Australian Climate Service describes the impact of climate change on every community in our country.
“The difference in terms of impact between 1.5 and 2 degrees of warming, let alone 3, is very real for Australia. If we get it right, the opportunity for our country is enormous, just as the risk if we get it wrong is very real.”
Bowen added, “I think many Australians will find this report confronting … I would say to people, let’s be clear-eyed about the challenges, let’s be realistic about the threats, but let’s be optimistic for the future.
“One thing that is very clear from this climate assessment is that our whole country has a lot at stake. The cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.”
Amanda McKenzie, CEO of the Climate Council, added that while the Assessment is “vital and horrifying reading” about how the climate crisis is likely to unfold through this century, it is not a given and we can still reduce climate risk significantly.
The NCRA – compiled by the Australian Climate Service, a partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia – is based on the best available scientific evidence.
Download the full Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment Report or view the executive summary of key findings.
National Adaptation Plan
The Federal Government’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) was also released this week, providing a framework for responding to nationally significant physical climate risks.
Drawing on the NCRA, the NAP focuses on embedding climate risk into decisions, protecting people and nature, and aligning finance, insurance and data behind resilience.
Issuing both reports together signals that adaptation is central to the response. Yet adaptation must be linked to emissions reduction: slower progress on cutting emissions increases the need for adaptation.
Access the National Adaptation Plan here.
Labor due to announce its 2035 emissions target
The NCRA and NAP land ahead of the government’s 2035 emissions-reduction target, due to be announced today. Australia’s emissions are currently just over 28% below 2005 levels and Labor has previously committed to a 43% reduction by 2030 under the Paris Agreement, a level widely viewed as insufficient.
The Australian Conservation Foundation, the Climate Council and leading corporations are calling for at least a 75% cut below 2005 levels by 2035. The “Business for 75%” group says a 75% target could boost national GDP by A$370 billion by 2035, with benefits far outweighing a 65% goal.
Alongside the 2035 goal, Labor is expected to outline further policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Tim Buckley, Director, Climate Energy Finance (CEF), said:
“Failure to massively accelerate our energy transition with ambitious emissions reduction targets of 75% by 2035 would be a betrayal of our intergenerational responsibility to act now to mitigate climate destruction.
“Australia is a global top three exporter of fossil fuels, in a world where emissions know no borders. The government must stop approving new coal & gas and pivot our strategic focus to massively step up the speed and scale of investment into decarbonisation of our energy, industrial systems and resources sectors.
“It is economically irresponsible to keep devoting our scarce resources to digging the hole deeper or pretending slightly lower emissions methane is somehow a bridge. We need to pivot our finite human capital, investment, enabling public infrastructure & government resources towards burgeoning zero-emissions industries of the future.
“Australia must ignore the bleating of fossil fuel industry vested interests, their lobbyists and captured politicians who are actively undermining the public interest, endangering our lives and economy.
“Our future prosperity and economic resilience has as a pre-requisite a safe climate and this depends on accelerating our emission reductions and urgently pivoting to singularly focus on our potential as a zero-emissions trade and investment leader in a decarbonising world.”
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